Impact on Gaza Cease-fire Negotiations
Haniyeh’s death could derail ongoing cease-fire negotiations in Gaza. Hamas might withdraw from talks aimed at ending the 10-month-old war, a development that U.S. mediators had previously indicated were making progress. Without a cease-fire, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza is likely to worsen, exacerbating suffering and instability.
Hezbollah’s Role and the Lebanese Dimension
The assassination also intersects with rising tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. Following a weekend rocket attack that killed 12 in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, Israel carried out a rare strike in Beirut, killing a top Hezbollah commander and several civilians. Hezbollah’s confirmation of the death, combined with its denial of involvement in the Golan attack, adds another layer of complexity to the already volatile situation.